2010 Third Quarter Plays

**Volatile** · 09-07-2010 01:24 PM

@Luci: QCOR has been stuck for quite some time now. I'm thinking this one's train is staying in the station.

ARNA: as luci said, a sweet love note from PJ. I'm liking the volume and if this fuels more interest, all the better. $8 should be doable, but then again, who knows with this one.

IDIX: a fun stock to ride for a while, but the game seems to be over for now.

SOMX: @gaab, you got your news , but going forward, I don't see anything keeping this stock from slipping while we await earnings?

ALXA: almost but not quite yet. Still gearing up for the real launch.

Europe's having a bad day, about time too. Not that today's news about the Euro should surprise.

**globalequitygroup** · 09-07-2010 04:51 PM

Originally Posted by Lucifer

And here we go...stock goes up, stock goes down and stock goes up again
Piper Jeffery is asking investors to buy ARNA ... openly
As a holder of ARNA, I kept asking myself, am I being played here?
Is PJ really out to help investors or is it just using this pump to get out of its positions??
I have decided to hold through panel with my shares, but the movement this moring is taking a lot of the surprise out of the box
Guess people will just make less money - $6 to $12 is a double; $7 to $12 is still not bad
Seriously considering QCOR at the moment too...Sept is action packed and Oct will be just mad...GLTA, Luc.

ps - if I can only have some of that good home cooked Southern meal to calm me down ... GEG

LOL!!!

It goes beyond calming you down, it will knock you clean on your ****.

Lucifer are you only anticipating 12.00 if approved?

IF this thing only goes to 12.00 then GEG is going to get shat upon. (That's British for $hitted on.)

Arena was bound to move. How far it moves is beyond my level of technical analysis. I will say that there are plenty of bag holders between 7.40 and 7.88 who got slaughtered on 8/2/2010. If they are heavy sellers over the next few days, then the stock will rise slowly, but if they are holding on through the documents and decision, then Arena will slice right throught it. Piper Jaffray has been bullish on this stock since the beginning, and has not waivered or come in with some BS analysis about something they heard or place some arbitrary hold rating on the stock to stop the momentum with no follow up reasoning. So I feel they are genuine. I rarely listen to analysts as most of you know, unless its Oppenheimer. They seem to be on point, and have the largest institutional holding in Arena, so I guess they decided to let their actions speak. I would have preferred to see the stock go into the documents just above 7.25. This would have given longs a chance at a major short covering rally on good news, but this will likley shake out some of the shorts (the potential rocket fuel.)

Will the documents mention Cadiac Vulvopathy? I can't see how they won't. They have to. I expect it.

Will the documents mention efficacy? Yes. I can't see how they won't. They have to. I expect it.

Everything else is a wildcard.

I expect a pronounced move one way or another.

Don't let Delcath pass you by at these bargain basement levels.

GEG.

**bio_tech** · 09-07-2010 06:26 PM

Anyone in AVNR? Any thoughts on this about dilution with relation to recent shelf registration?

**erlik** · 09-08-2010 03:24 AM

AVNR: I am in. Dilution is possible, however the recent filling looks more like a filling renewal than the prospect of imediate dilution. Currently the company has 41 Mio. in cash and uses 6 Mio. per quarter, so they could theorically survive for years on their current cash reserves. They could dilute 'just in case' Zenvia is not approved and they need to run more trials, but I do not expect it unless the PPS starts running up wildly.

ARNA: it has started running and is grabbing all the attention right now. QCOR, ALKS and SVNT have barely moved despite the imminent catalysts. I think QCOR could pop to the $12 - $14 on approval, and I expect ALKS to do well on a positive panel too (although it may get overshadowed by ARNA's panel).

ISTA & MELA all have catalysts later this year and DEPO & CLDA have catalyst in January. they all got a bit battered today. I would not buy yet but I would watch them closely because if the market continues to fall this could create a nice buying opportunity later this month (September is usually a bad month for stocks).

**clakeman** · 09-08-2010 11:52 AM

QCOR:

Is anyone holding thru FDA panel decision?
As far as ARNA - Would it be a good idea to play OREX too.

**erlik** · 09-08-2010 12:54 PM

QCOR: I will probably hold some options trough the approval date and sell some in the run-up. If there is a large approval spike I may also purchase a put or two during the approval. QCOR seems to be running wildly today. The only reason I could find is a positive article in the street, but maybe that's reason enough.

OREX: I am staying on the sidelines on that one. My opinion is that if ARNA is rejected on safety then OREX is very likely to be rejected on safety grounds too. If ARNA is rejected on efficacy, OREX has a small chance to be accepted (it works a little bit better), but the safety issues remain. If ARNA is accepted OREX will face strong competition in the market. Lorquess has a lot less side effects than Contrave, so I expect most people to chose ARNA's drug... Now it is possible that you get some pop based on speculation, but I would not bet on it.

**Volatile** · 09-08-2010 01:51 PM

Looks like I was wrong... QCOR does have some life in it.

ARNA: Needs a bit more volume to push it over 7.50
SOMX: out with a big loss. Won't repeat this kind of gamble again. Once earnings near, it's worthwhile to check this one again: we might have a small runup, and any positive start to the Silenor campaign will be rewarded nicely.
DCTH: GEG, do you see this one moving back to 8 short term? It's on the move all right, but not on huge volume.

Meanwhile we wait for the wise words from the Fed

**Spunk** · 09-08-2010 04:44 PM

Guyz looking at Qcor I personally see a 20 to 48% upside and it seems some investors are throwing it down on that stock (47000 shares one buyer) very impressive! They have tried twice in the past to get this drug approved and failed ....maybe the third time might be the charm ...case in point somx !

Arna should get approval but the briefing docs might be a game changer is the questions are ruthless, I think Arna will be the only drug to scale the obesity space out of the three this year! if the panel i positive this should ride up to low to high 20s IMHO....imagine if you got in at 3 bucks

Still laughing at the Luci, GEG southern food comments - " we need a blockbuster drug for ITIS"

**clakeman** · 09-08-2010 06:12 PM

Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Updates Status Of Supplemental New Drug Application
4:15pm EDT
Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has informed Questcor that the FDA will require additional time beyond the current action date of September 11, 2010 to complete its review of Questcor’s supplemental new drug application (sNDA) for H.P. Acthar Gel (repository corticotropin injection) in the treatment of infantile spasms (IS). In conjunction with the FDA’s review of this sNDA, Questcor and the FDA have been updating and modernizing the product label for Acthar, which has not been modified since 1978, when multiple sclerosis was added to the label. This step of the review process is now complete. Questcor has been notified that the FDA needs some additional time to finalize the wording on the label, review the proposed medication guide, and define post-approval commitments, if any, for the IS indication.

**globalequitygroup** · 09-08-2010 08:27 PM

LMAO!!!

Yeah Spunk that would be blockbuster for sure, I would definitely be a buyer of that stock...and a user of the drug...daily.

QCOR looks like its going to be approved based on the wording of this release. What the potential upside is goes beyond my level of comprehension, but the volume on the stock is very thin given the fact that is had a catalyst date less than 2-3 days away. 7% Short Interest. Its currently trading at 20 times EPS and the EPS growth is flat to negative. I do not see how the catalyst is going to massively increase revenue, so with all that I'm not sure how much of a pop you will get. I have no position in it, but I hope all holders have a positive outcome.

Delcath...Volatile it appears to have decent volume. Good enough for me as it is over 1 million shares daily. This is average to just below average for Delcath.
There is no news to speak of...so this is just bottom feeders (value buyers) picking up a winner at fire sale prices after the dilution. The technicals were set up nicely and the trade was just waiting to be taken. There is resistance @ 6.95 and 7.20. If those can be pierced, then the stock will return to 8.00. It will likely settle/consolidate around 8.25 before making a next leg up. I think this stock will be 15.00 - 20.00 + in the next 18 months barring any negative announcements.

AVNR...I know nothing about this stock, but from a technical perspective it appears to be holding a support level @ 2.65. However, it really needed to bounce off the 50 Day MA back in Mid August around 3.05 or so to really be showing some strength, so it looks a bit challenged to me at the moment. However, I do not know the story behind it and you could be getting a steal of a deal right now. Just giving my unsolicited 1.5 cents.

ARNA...Another coincidentally timed bearish call from Bank of America. Not saying its a conspiracy, but it comes on the heels of the Piper Jaffray Bull call. Whenever the stock gets some momentum, there always seems to be some arbitrary anaylst downgrade with no reasoning behind it. Maybe they don't want people running into the stock so close to a catalyst, or maybe they are just scum. Either way it pi$$es me off to no end. I know Vivus holders were not pleased either. As far as technicals, Arena looks like it could pull back again tomorrow, the Doji at the top of this recent trend is never a good sign, but this close to the catalyst a lot of that is thrown out the window. We'll have to see.

The Market...What happens tomorrow is anyones guess at this point, but I do notice a number of stocks that I am following are at a resistance level. The S&P is fighting hard with the 100 Day SMA. Bearish Flag forming. One little bit of Bad News and we will re-trace. I would expect to see the pullback stop between 1069 - 1076. If the retracement does not materialize then we will rally for another 20 points for sure.

Potash is too bullish for me to short. Still kicking myself for missing this breakout...saw it and over analyzed it as the market was reeling.

Netflix (NFLX) Why? Someone tell me why?

Priceline (PCLN) A true Beast to be reckoned with. Don't chase it though.

Picked up the IPad 3G over the weekend. Love it. Could I have lived without it? Of Course, so why buy it? Because its Apple and its just better than Kindle and Nook and Sony, its intrigueing and it draws attention, and looks cool. That is why its selling like crazy. The consumer is not dead by a long shot. We are still buying things we want and not just things we need.

I suggested last week to buy Apple below 242.00. That would have been a 20.00 per share profit since last Wednesday. Even if you could only buy 25 shares, you would have made 500.00 in one week. (10) $270.00 call options would have made you $1,600.00 + today alone. I'm sure that would have paid at least one of your recurring pain in the a$$ bills. There is plenty easy money to be made even in this volatile and unpredictable market.

Good Luck tomorrow.

GEG.

Thread: 2010 Third Quarter Plays

LinkBack

Thread Tools

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions